Australian mining industry: Outlook, drivers and opportunities for METS companies

The Australian mining industry enters 2026 with a constructive, albeit moderating, outlook shaped by global economic conditions and the structural shift toward decarbonisation. The Australian Government’s Office of the Chief Economist, in its latest Resources and Energy Quarterly, notes that commodity prices are generally expected to ease from recent highs but remain supportive of continued investment across the sector.

Copper continues to stand out as a strategically important commodity, with demand growth underpinned by electrification, renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles. While short-term price volatility is expected, medium-term fundamentals remain strong given supply constraints and the long lead times required to bring new projects online. Gold prices remain elevated relative to historical averages, supported by safe-haven demand, geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing central bank buying, with export earnings forecast to remain robust.

Iron ore, Australia’s largest export by value, is expected to experience some price moderation as global supply increases and Chinese steel demand growth slows. However, export volumes are expected to remain resilient and the commodity continues to underpin national earnings. Critical minerals — including lithium, nickel and rare earths — remain central to Australia’s long-term growth narrative. While lithium prices have retraced from recent peaks, long-term demand projections remain compelling as global decarbonisation policies accelerate and supply chains diversify.

These commodity drivers are flowing directly into activity levels across the Mining Equipment, Technology and Services (METS) sector. Major listed METS businesses continue to report solid performance metrics and strong demand momentum. NRW Holdings reported a 12.2% increase in annual revenue to approximately $3.3 billion in FY25, supported by double-digit growth in its Civil and MET segments, and maintained a strong $6.1 billion order book heading into FY26. Mader Group recorded $872.2 million in FY25 revenue — a 13% increase year-on-year — with net profit after tax of approximately $57.1 million. Mineral Resources’ Mining Services division delivered record underlying EBITDA of approximately $379 million in its half-year result, underscoring strong operational earnings in services even amid commodity-price pressure. These outcomes highlight robust demand for specialist services, maintenance and lifecycle support across mining operations.

More broadly, the outlook across the METS ecosystem is positive. Despite price moderation in certain commodities, miners continue to invest in productivity, automation, decarbonisation and asset optimisation — all of which support demand for specialist services and technology providers. Our METS clients are reporting a strong uptick in performance over the past 12–18 months, with expanding order books, improving utilisation and strengthening margins.

Inbound M&A interest is also accelerating. We are seeing a notable increase in approaches from local and international trade buyers, including from Europe, North America and Asia, seeking Australian capability and client exposure. In parallel, more Australian private equity firms are actively targeting the sector, attracted by its recurring revenue characteristics, strong management teams and exposure to structural growth themes linked to electrification and sustainability.

Recent transactions involving businesses such as Prudentia, RPM Global and Dingo highlight the continued strategic value placed on specialist capability, proprietary technology and diversified client bases. Consolidation remains a key theme as buyers seek scale, cross-selling opportunities and enhanced service offerings.

InterFinancial has been active in the mining and METS sector for over 20 years, completing dozens of transactions locally and globally across multiple market cycles. Executive Director, Brad Shaw, InterFinancial’s METS sector specialist and a Board Member of Austmine, works closely with founders, shareholders and management teams to assess valuation, strategic positioning and future options. If you are considering growth capital, succession planning or a potential sale, we invite you to speak with Brad about how your business is valued in the current environment and what strategic pathways may be available.